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Cashing In On Chaos
Chaos Clinic for 2/28/2020
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When the S&P turns down, the SH short S&P Exchange Traded Fund turns up. This
was very clear this past week as the corona virus spooked investors.
This chart is one I check daily as another way to look at what the S&P is doing.
It helps me monitor the longer term trend, To aid in this, I use 8 hour bars,
and a rainbow of EXMAs, set to 3, 6, 12, and 24 days.
This chart shows a down trend that began 10/3/2019. As it progressed, there was a
clear seven move down Chaos Clamshell, shown by the green numbers 1-7. Move
7 formed a decending wedge, outlined in white. During the latter part of that
wedge, I started buying SH. Then as the EXMA's started turning up, I bought more,
until the prices gapped up, ending with an average price of 23.66 on 500 shares.
With the low being 22.80, a 1 point stop at 22.66 limited my initial risk to $500.
It was easy to tell that this was a good entry, because all of the EXMAs turned up,
and sharply. The longest EXMA, 24 days, is already above my entry. So I have
moved my stop to 23.70, essentially break even.
With the drop from 10/3 taking 140 days, a simple equal time move would last 140 days,
That would be July 8, 2020. With such a good entry, I can afford to wait to see how this plays
out. I know that the evolving decline will take the form of a Chaos Clamshell, still in move 1.
Chaos Clamshells are taught in my Cash in On Chaos course.
A free online mini course called Trading The Chaos Clamshell
can be found at
http://moneytide.com/hans/institute.asp<\a>
For more on my work, see Moneytide.com
2/28/2020 2:06:45 PM MT qq:: WOW! Last 5 minute SURGE up!
2/28/2020 12:37:37 PM MT BOG****:: Hi Dr. Al, what made you hold from Feb 19?
2/28/2020 12:00:49 PM MT qq:: Couldn't resist. Went out and bought a case of Corona Beer and a bottle of Itlaian MessaCorona Pinot Grigio
2/28/2020 11:57:14 AM MT qq:: Washington Post (or is it Washington Compost) has been streaming Fear Porn with a live feed of the Stock Market all day.
2/28/2020 11:55:54 AM MT jbs****:: Have a great weekend Al.
2/28/2020 11:35:19 AM MT Al****:: I'm done for the day-thanks for coming-see you next week-take some courses
2/28/2020 11:31:12 AM MT Al****:: stopped -4
2/28/2020 11:17:30 AM MT jbs****:: Out for +7. Waiting for pullback and EMA curl up to reenter Long.
2/28/2020 11:04:23 AM MT Al****:: now moved it to 2916, right under the dip to the 110 and 220
2/28/2020 10:58:20 AM MT Al****:: guess that's just below S1
2/28/2020 10:57:29 AM MT Al****:: here below the last low that penetrated the rising 110
2/28/2020 10:54:54 AM MT jbs****:: Long at 12:51 after EMA curl up and trend continuation.
2/28/2020 10:40:36 AM MT jbs****:: Al, how wide are you placing your stop loss for this type market condition?
2/28/2020 10:38:41 AM MT Al****:: 20/110 buy on MoonTide time
2/28/2020 10:30:12 AM MT qq:: Substantial decrease put/call premiums since this AM
2/28/2020 10:28:45 AM MT jbs****:: Al, thanks for your reply on days of week.
2/28/2020 10:28:22 AM MT Al****:: I covered my MES because I had already decided to cover it today
then I saw a little strength on the Chaos Clinic chart
and did not want to sit through a green +Tide rally
2/28/2020 10:20:12 AM MT jbs****:: jts, thanks
2/28/2020 10:16:21 AM MT jts:: NT8 with CQG Data has been Almost Flawless. Only have seen 1 tiny glitch around 413pm et yest. no lockup just a momentary glitch in chart.... Other than that no glitches last few weeks...
2/28/2020 10:14:08 AM MT Al****:: Fridays tend to be less volatile; Tuesday and Thursday more
2/28/2020 10:05:38 AM MT jbs****:: Al, based on your experience, are there any days of the week where Moontide trades have performed less favorably? That is day or days with less net point gains than other days of the week.
2/28/2020 10:03:09 AM MT Al****:: I had a tiny short from the 19th close, just two MES - just covered for $4525 , 452.5 points
combination of luck, tools, and stubborness
2/28/2020 9:59:02 AM MT jbs****:: Any opinions or experience with execution on NinjaTrader?
2/28/2020 9:52:55 AM MT jts:: Been sayin this for Years: Friends don't Let Friends Execute on TOS!! TOS is for Charting, Not For Trading Index Futures!!!
2/28/2020 9:23:47 AM MT jbs****:: Fun market action to 'watch'. I think the Flash Boys have run enough stops to take price down again.
2/28/2020 9:07:36 AM MT qq:: IYT:XLI (Transport/Inductrial) also up past 2 days
2/28/2020 9:06:40 AM MT jbs****:: TOS just started moving again.
2/28/2020 9:06:33 AM MT jbs****:: TOS just started moving again.
2/28/2020 9:05:49 AM MT jbs****:: Wow, TOS 3 min chart is frozen. at 2888.50
2/28/2020 9:04:55 AM MT qq:: XLY:XLP (Consumer discretionary/Staples up past 2 days)
2/28/2020 8:55:11 AM MT qq:: Daily TICKS bottomed on Feb 26 and moving up
2/28/2020 8:52:23 AM MT qq:: But present level seems good for temp support
2/28/2020 8:48:29 AM MT qq:: Plateau from Jan 2018 till June 2019 offers good support around S&P 2753
2/28/2020 8:42:32 AM MT pst****:: Gold down 65
2/28/2020 8:27:40 AM MT jbs****:: MES would be $5 per point vs ES which is $50 per point, correct?
2/28/2020 8:19:25 AM MT Al****:: Jude 6 is an old piece of work. Like most trading system it can be tuned to make money-as long as the market conditions don't change.
Jude 6 looked good, but when I ran it with real money for 3 months
it made nothing. The point of the article is about how to use multiple contracts. Today that works well if one uses the MES micro contract.
2/28/2020 8:03:28 AM MT jbs****:: Look for price support at 54.
2/28/2020 8:00:10 AM MT jbs****:: However, the 3 min bars seem to be in sync between NT and TOS.
2/28/2020 7:45:04 AM MT jbs****:: I noticed something interesting when comparing Thinkorswim 500 tick charts to NinjaTrader 500 tick charts. Thinkorswim is significantly lagging the price action feed versus NinjaTrader. Must be due to extremely high activity.
2/28/2020 7:41:45 AM MT jbs****:: Al, in the Money Management article in the ListOfChart tab, you mention "Jude 6* autotrader. I use this, because Jude 6 is a totally automated system, whereas the hotline trades are not 100 per cent mechanical".
Is the "Jude 6 autotrader" a product you make available?
In your posted historical results (2017 thru 2019 for example), are the Monday through Thursday results obtained using Jude 6 autotrader and the Friday results are manual trading?
2/28/2020 7:37:52 AM MT gon:: Hi All, it looks like the chart on the AUX page does not correspond to the analysis.. can you check pls?
2/28/2020 6:51:04 AM MT Al****:: I have placed a Chaos Clamshell chart in the Certified Chaos Trader's Room. That room is open
to graduates of my 4 main courses. See http://moneytide.com -> Courses for details.
eMylar Fractal of Pi overlays help you be patient, since they show you future potential moves.
The best bargain in my courses is to take the Cash In On Chaos and Fractal of Pi courses and
learn to use the FOP overlay. Then take Chaos Trading Made Easy, and finish with Face Of God.
2/28/2020 6:49:31 AM MT jbs****:: Good morning
2/28/2020 5:23:51 AM MT Al****::
Welcome to the Chaos Clinic. This site has a lot of charts,
so you may find it useful to have several of them available within your
browser. If you have a tabbed browser, you can open separate charts
in separate tabs by right clicking on any link, and selecting "open in new tab"
from the menu. The main list of site pages is at
http://daytradingforecasts.com/chartlistsec.asp
Recommended pages to watch are SPKISS, Chaos Clinic, SPKISS, MTRainbow, and Chat.
For astro stuff, add SPSunMoon, Wheel, and Chaos Clinic.
Comments appear in the chat room,
Comments in the chat room are announced by a
"duck call" noise. This noise also occurs when the software detects a
resonant hex pattern on the Wheel page. Trading tutorials
are on the right side of the ListOfCharts page. One should
read Trading the MoonTide Tutorial and Keep it Simple as a minimum.
2/28/2020 5:21:16 AM MT Al****:: GM all-good luck today
Chaos Clinic is posted on the AUX page
The extra ordinary volatility has made many charts on this site
badly scaled. Volatility is 3 to 5 times normal, so risks are
high for day traders. One has to be very careful, which is why
many traders should consider using EFTs as suggested in the Chaos Clinic.
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments