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How Long, How Far?
Chaos Clinic for 3/3/2020
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Now that it is clear to everyone that the Corona Virus is affecting markets,
( see my 2/21/2020 Chaos Clinic ) one has to ask, "How long, how far?"
The final answer is of course,not known, but the Chaos Clamshell pattern can
provide an estimate. This chart shows several years of the S&P. It shows
five of seven moves in an up Chaos Clamshell. The current decline is the first
part of move 6. It can be estimated by anticipating that it might look like
move 2 or move 4. Prices have already declined about as much as either move.
Because of the speed of the decline so far, the extent of the decline
in price may reach to about 1800, the move 4 level of the move 5 going up.
Time duration can be estimated three was: equal to move 4, about 1.5 years;
equal to move 2, about 3 years; of a time equal to the move from minor 4 to the top,
about 4.5 years.
These time frame suggest a bear market. The virus is causing unprecedented financial strain
on many business sectors. It will take a long time to mend the carnage.
Chaos Clamshells are taught in my Cash in On Chaos course.
A free online mini course called Trading The Chaos Clamshell
can be found at
http://moneytide.com/hans/institute.asp<\a>
For more on my work, see Moneytide.com
3/13/2020 2:01:19 PM MT qq:: My Call 4X increase at close. Looks to go higher
3/13/2020 1:54:43 PM MT qq:: Bought a SPY call mid-day that's now more than doubled. I'm holding it till Monday
3/13/2020 12:43:12 PM MT jbs****:: Done for the week. Enjoy your weekend!!
3/13/2020 12:36:52 PM MT jbs****:: Think this is 3 in clam shell. But I predict we will be general down to closing.
3/13/2020 12:35:47 PM MT jbs****:: I think we are pulling back to 48 before pushing lower.
3/13/2020 12:31:42 PM MT jbs****:: I expect some rebound now .
3/13/2020 12:23:52 PM MT jbs****:: I am not trading. S right now is against the EMAs. But all the same, I think 29 is the target for a short.
3/13/2020 12:23:01 PM MT jbs****:: make that s target 29
3/13/2020 12:22:27 PM MT jbs****:: S target is 25 for me
3/13/2020 12:19:17 PM MT DBJ****:: Thanks again Al. Have a great weekend everyone, and good trading next week.
3/13/2020 12:18:27 PM MT jbs****:: Al, have a great weekend. Thanks for all you do!
3/13/2020 12:14:37 PM MT Al****:: I think it holds up to close
I'm done for the week
3/13/2020 12:09:36 PM MT Al****:: out -26
3/13/2020 12:07:46 PM MT jbs****:: Think we might be seeing a chaos down move in a clam shell now.
3/13/2020 11:54:46 AM MT jbs****:: Al, thanks
3/13/2020 11:51:07 AM MT Al****:: that vertical line on Daniel chart may be a streak up
3/13/2020 11:50:08 AM MT Al****:: Chaos Clinic chart working for me
3/13/2020 11:49:41 AM MT Al****:: I'm just going with the EXMAs and Tide times
3/13/2020 11:46:51 AM MT Al****:: l
3/13/2020 11:35:29 AM MT Al****:: OK jbs
3/13/2020 11:35:12 AM MT jbs****:: I had considering a long position for this trade window. EMAs are curling up now. But, I'm concerned about two things, 1) the vertical line on the Daniel chart, 2) possible 5 or 7 pt on 3 min chart. Price might be turning down on the vertical line.
3/13/2020 11:27:31 AM MT jbs****:: Yes, I am here as well.
3/13/2020 11:27:07 AM MT Al****:: you are welcome DBJ - looks like everyone else went home or lost connection
3/13/2020 11:22:54 AM MT Al****:: Zoom test is over
3/13/2020 11:22:48 AM MT DBJ****:: Good test. Thanks for that!
3/13/2020 10:57:45 AM MT DBJ****:: I can hear you
3/13/2020 10:57:07 AM MT DBJ****:: I joined, and can hear your typing, but you don't seem to be able to hear me or see the message I typed into the session.
3/13/2020 10:55:09 AM MT Al****:: anybody here?
3/13/2020 10:49:42 AM MT Al****:: I'd like to do a Zoom test
go to
https://zoom.us/j/5510703790
3/13/2020 10:32:21 AM MT DBJ****:: Thank you.
3/13/2020 10:19:56 AM MT Al****:: the most recent one
the one before it as well
3/13/2020 10:04:30 AM MT DBJ****:: Which vertical line are you referring to?
3/13/2020 9:51:36 AM MT Al****:: note vertical line on Secret->Daniel chart
3/13/2020 9:47:33 AM MT DBJ****:: One of my FOPs completes at 2161 around 12:15 on the 16th.
3/13/2020 9:42:56 AM MT jbs****:: I think price will react at 11 resistance before going down again. May consolidate here for a while, who knows. Flash Boys need to go get lunch. It's sunny where I live. So I'm getting lunch and enjoying some sunshine for a bit. Enjoy the chaos!
3/13/2020 9:36:43 AM MT Al****:: fixed scale on sprainbow - broke below bundle
3/13/2020 9:33:39 AM MT jbs****:: Watching for price to hit support about now.
3/13/2020 9:05:23 AM MT DBJ****:: Greetings everyone. To add to jbs' observation about 1929, and Al's and clb's comments about the 1800 target, most of you will also be aware of Gann's 50% rule, which could take the SPX down to 1696 before this is all over. Or, I should say, this main leg is all over if 1929 is a valid comparison.
3/13/2020 9:01:30 AM MT jbs****:: Bouncing now on 23, the first support level, imo. Will it pull back to 43 and try to go down again?
3/13/2020 8:59:41 AM MT jbs****:: Anyone know the next price level for limit down trading halt?
3/13/2020 8:58:59 AM MT jbs****:: First support at 23 then 07 and 83, imo.
3/13/2020 8:56:32 AM MT jbs****:: Potential 7 down more starting on 3 minute chart.
3/13/2020 8:51:23 AM MT jbs****:: Amazing, did you ever think you might see S&P one day decline at the magnitude of the 1929 crash?
I do not believe the economic fallout of the pandemic has yet been priced into the market. Many businesses are suffering revenue losses right now which will reflect in profit losses and lower stock prices later.
I am very thankful that I sold all my 401k holdings two days before the decline started. Unfortunately, many were not in a position to do the same. To those folks I say, this too will pass. Things will get better. Recovery from the great recession took a number of years for many 401K savings accounts. But, they did recover.
We have never failed to recover!
The tools presented here are most value in times like these... times of chaos.
3/13/2020 8:39:32 AM MT clb****:: Buy volume for ESM20 on my chart is the highest it has been in 10 days, but price still choppy making 60 point swings. Even on a micro emini, it is hard to do.
3/13/2020 8:22:57 AM MT Al****:: last chart on SPKISS looks like a 1 2 3 in 4
3/13/2020 8:17:43 AM MT Al****:: nice we got the same answer :)
rescaled astro charts on SPKISS page
3/13/2020 8:09:51 AM MT clb****:: Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the chart on the AUX page. I was up late last night looking at weekly and monthly charts of SPY. The levels that I noticed were 233.7 and 180.0. If the Dec. 2018 low doesn't hold, I think market could go to 180, the 2016 low. This environment sure has a lot of volatility now.
3/13/2020 8:04:28 AM MT Al****:: now have spSunMoon rescaled
3/13/2020 7:49:07 AM MT Al****:: I've decided I need to rescale the astro charts
we are seeing a chaos theory "scale jump" (think it is in Cash In On Chaos ) of 5:1 so wheel of 360 charts need to move to wheel of 1800
So far I've done the Chaos Clinic Chart
3/13/2020 7:36:40 AM MT Al****:: I think that's the rule
3/13/2020 7:29:34 AM MT qq:: Lock limit up 5%?
3/13/2020 7:22:29 AM MT Al****:: I've never seen the S&P lock limit 3 times in one week
3/13/2020 5:51:37 AM MT Al****:: GM all-good luck today
Chaos Clinic is posted on AUX page
3/12/2020 11:38:21 PM MT qq:: Went long on SPY and GLD nearing close. Glad I did. Looking to sell when market opens since I expect a sell-off.
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments