Chaos Clinic Recap
Here are Al's comments
Trump and Powell Team Up to Top The S&P
Chaos Clinic for 5/10/2019
Two weeks ago it looked like the S&P was about to break the 2018 high, and even
reach 3025. On the first of May, it did make new record highs. But that was the
second day of the regular FOMC meeting. The Fed did not change rates, as expected.
But somehow, during Mr. Powell's press conference, the market started down, falling
sharply late in the day. But it bounced back the next day, last Friday, ending on
the high of the day. All seemed well.
When the S&P futures opened Sunday night, they had dropped sharply, thanks to a tweet
by Mister Trump threatening to sharply raise tariffs on Chinese goods if they did not
come to terms with the US in their trade negotiations. Since then the market has been chaotic,
going mostly down.
This chart shows the big picture. While presidents and Fed chairs do not control the market,
they do have an influence, especially if they assert that influence at a critical time in
the market. This is what happened here.
While Powell's comments sent the market down, they did not come as a surprise. Trump's tweet
did. It created a gap in the energy field. Gaps are discontinuities. They create chaos.
In today's 24 hour market, gaps are mostly over the weekend. The April first plasma gap
signaled higher prices. Now a gap down has created a "plasma island." This is a form of
The chart show essentially equal price moves down and up. But the Santa Rally moved only
three fourths as fast as the 2018 Fourth Quarter Panic. That indicates lower energy.
So far the rainbow of EXMAs on the chart have all turned down. However, they have not
made any crossings yet. Over the next week or two, this will be a clue as to whether or
not this has turned the market down into a bear market, or is just a dip.
Traders who want to play this top longer term should consider the SH S&P Short Exchange Traded
Fund. It looks to have turned up.
This week has clearly shown how chaotic markets are. It helps to understand how chaotic systems
work, especially market systems.For this, I suggest my Cash In On Chaos course,
available at Moneytide.com
Besides the comments made by Al, the chat room has live
comments from other traders who sometimes share their views,
trades and tips. Below are the chat room comments from this clinic
5/10/2019 1:51:23 PM MT clb****:: It will be interesting to see if there is any follow through on Monday. The last bar on my 60 minute chart of ES is likely to form a spike reversal.
5/10/2019 1:50:04 PM MT clb****:: ff, you may be right, it was quite a reversal day. I would like to see a retest of today's low. I think some of the rally in the last 30 minutes was caused by short covering.
5/10/2019 1:27:54 PM MT ff:: I believe the lows and highers should trend up from here.
5/10/2019 1:26:58 PM MT :: We r on our way to top the top
5/10/2019 12:40:01 PM MT Al****:: I'm done. Thanks for coming. See you next week. Take some courses.
Learn to Cash In On Chaos .
5/10/2019 12:37:19 PM MT Al****:: on the SPKISS page the bar colors show trades just about like mine. It's just two moving averages. The trick is not to over use it when the market is congesting.
The magenta burst on my Daniel chart suggested a volatile day, so it worked.
5/10/2019 12:35:30 PM MT ff:: From a tech side the TRIN is at an unhealthy 2.1 - very high
5/10/2019 12:33:33 PM MT clb****:: I was occupied studding for level 2 of my CMT exam.
5/10/2019 12:32:41 PM MT :: Ok thnx CLB
5/10/2019 12:30:39 PM MT clb****:: I got about 12 points out of the rally. I did not sell on the first trade window. I sold some put spreads yesterday that I need to look at covering today or Monday.
5/10/2019 12:30:26 PM MT Al****:: I have no idea; I just followed what the Flash Boys did. They took them.
5/10/2019 12:29:32 PM MT :: CLB ??
5/10/2019 12:28:13 PM MT :: aNY BODY ELSE TOOK THESE TRADES ?
5/10/2019 12:27:44 PM MT Al****:: yeah, just wish I never had C,D, and E days :)
5/10/2019 12:25:22 PM MT clb****:: Nice! You have your "A" game on today.
5/10/2019 12:24:21 PM MT Al****:: the times are MDT
5/10/2019 12:24:17 PM MT clb****:: Also interesting to add: The congestion this morning that marked the bottom came near a 90 degree aspect of the moon with the exchange. If you look at the bottom as a rectangle pattern, it would be roughly in the middle of that pattern. The rally started at the Uranus transit, and will soon have traveled 45 degrees from the last position of the moon fairly soon. Not sure if there is enough momentum to close above yesterday's high, but only time will tell.
5/10/2019 12:23:43 PM MT Al****:: Thanks CLB. Occassionally I can put it all together. Today was one of those days. Here are my two MoonTide trades for today, exported from my IB trading system.
ES SLD 1 2854.5 14:05:06 20190510
ES BOT 1 2830 15:04:37 20190510 +24.5
ES BOT 1 2839.25 16:02:24 20190510
ES SLD 1 2867.5 18:16:11 20190510 +28.25
5/10/2019 12:16:24 PM MT clb****:: Thanks Dr. Larson. I have a fascination with markets, and the way you look at them. I have been watching your clinics since 2007, and am always learning something from you. Much thanks for that. For others in the room here. Astrophysics does seem to explain market movements better than anything else I have ever looked at.
5/10/2019 12:12:17 PM MT Al****:: thanks clb. Everyone: clb has 4 askerists because he is a Certiifed Chaos Trader
but he is much more than that; he has spent years building his own trading software, studying markets, and just doing his own thing
5/10/2019 12:11:34 PM MT ff:: Since the drop started a week ago I count 5 declining tops and 5 declining bottoms. Perhaps OR NOT Monday will be a 6th decline bottom. After tariff worries are over there might be higher lows and highs next week.
5/10/2019 12:06:49 PM MT clb****:: That is probably a wise decision.
5/10/2019 12:05:22 PM MT Al****:: one should not carry any futures over this weekend; eft position trades are OK; option traders can do what they want; personally I'd cash in on chaos and start over Monday
5/10/2019 12:03:24 PM MT clb****:: On a daily chart of VIX, yesterday was an outside reversal day. Even though the market traded lower today, VIX never got near yesterday's high. This rally may last more than a day.
5/10/2019 12:01:49 PM MT Al****:: my Daniel chart says 2861 should be a safe stop
5/10/2019 11:57:54 AM MT Al****:: on that chart, which shows geo flux, the low was set by Mercury+270 degrees, and now have reached Mercury+315, an 8th harmonic move of 45 degrees-time to tighten stops
5/10/2019 11:47:12 AM MT Al****:: Now I would like you to look at the SPSunMoonMer chart, linked on the left side of the ListOfCharts page. It shows you a simple flux line chart. I just rescaled this chart to the Wheel of 360.
5/10/2019 11:24:05 AM MT Al****:: this is working well-a rally here may only be a day thing,
but catching one is fun-right now going up the green +Tide
5/10/2019 11:04:44 AM MT Al****:: that magenta burst has a matching one 45 points higher-could reach that
5/10/2019 10:29:01 AM MT Al****:: that magenta starburst is now repelling; Market Chaos Theory in action
5/10/2019 10:18:00 AM MT Al****:: I have placed a second FOG chart in the CCT Room
5/10/2019 10:01:50 AM MT Al****:: I have placed a Face of God chart in the Certified Chaos Trader's Room. That room is open
to graduates of my 4 main courses. See http://moneytide.com -> Courses for details.
eMylar Fractal of Pi overlays help you be patient, since they show you future potential moves.
The best bargain in my courses is to take the Cash In On Chaos and Fractal of Pi courses and
learn to use the FOP overlay. Then take Chaos Trading Made Easy, and finish with Face Of God.
5/10/2019 9:31:30 AM MT Al****:: Something to watch on the Secret->Daniel chart: there is a magenta
start burst at 2832.5
these points act as Chaos Strange Attractors/Repellors
Attracted price-will it later repel price?
5/10/2019 9:25:21 AM MT Al****:: the FlashBoy computers sold the pivot at 2865.25, drove it through S1, and started buying just above S3.
5/10/2019 9:19:46 AM MT Al****:: the first MoonTide trade is shown on the 3rd chart on the SPKISS page. The bars are colored by the 20/110 EXMAs. They gave a sell near 2856. A reasonable cover for 24 points was possible, when the yellow 20 turned up.
on the Secret->esNat72 chart there are two vertical lines
approaching those is a good time to cover.
This is all explained in the Trading The MoonTides tutorial, linked top right of ListOfCharts page
5/10/2019 9:01:40 AM MT Al****:: arf: I was not surprised by Trump's tweet; the market was;I am never surprised by chaos
If you have taken the Cash In On Chaos course you know 7 moves is the most common Chaos Clamshell, but others exist
subscribers: FYI: I did resume my short position via SH
5/10/2019 8:37:13 AM MT arf:: Al also what about the 7 wave fractal I can see, no comments on that
5/10/2019 8:31:51 AM MT arf:: Al I read your comment about the SP500, why were you surprised at Trumps comment. It fell exactly on a 90 trading day cycle. We now have been down for 7 days. So a correction has about a 60% chance of occuring.
5/10/2019 7:16:00 AM MT jvj****:: Good morning everyone!
5/10/2019 7:10:37 AM MT Al****:: FYI:I was stopped out of my swing trade short for a profit.
5/10/2019 7:05:44 AM MT Al****:: GM all-good luck today
Chaos Clinic is posted on AUX page
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments
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