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S&P Turns Down Hard
Chaos Clinic for 6/12/2020
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In last week's Chaos Clinic I said
"This suggests a possible downturn ahead. But that needs to confirmed by a downturn is the EXMAs"
Those EXMAs turned down hard this week, aided by erronious job numbers, a lunar eclipse, a Fireball Top,
a FOMC meeting, and a resurgence in COVID-19. This 9 day 24 hour hourly chart of the microES futures
shows what happened.
The jobs report rally was unexpected, because it reported over 2 million jobs gained, instead of
the expected two or more million additional losses. But even before the day was out, analysts down played the report
because of known "classification errors." The eclipse near the end of trading last Friday helped
stall the rally.
On Monday, the market was sluggish, but managed to make a new high at the close. Overnight it
completed a FireBall Top. Fireballs often are due to Uranus, because its spin axis lies in the
ecliptic plane, rather than nearly perpendicular to it as with the other planets. When I checked
this out, I found that Mercury was opposing Uranus heliocentrically. That made sense, because
the eclipse cycle of 173 days is almost exactly twice the period of Mercury.
On Tuesday, after a sharp overnight drop, prices traded in a narrow range, as it often does during the first
day of an FOMC meeting. Overnight, prices rallied to a lower high at point 1.
By the start of the normal session on Wednesday, prices broke through the 1.5 day and 3 day EXMAs at point 2.
They held up until after the Fed Chair press conference, when he warned that many of the lost
jobs would never come back, then broke lower, curling the 3 and 6 day EXMAs down.
From there the decline accelerated.
Both the Fireball Top and the Wednesday morning downturn were pointed out to subscribers of daytradingforecasts.com
For more on my work, see Moneytide.com
6/12/2020 1:22:48 PM MT pvl:: Thnx AI
6/12/2020 12:14:05 PM MT Al****:: I'm calling it a day. Thanks for coming. See you next week. Take some courses. Have a good weekend and stay safe.
6/12/2020 12:12:42 PM MT Al****:: on the Chaos Clinic chart seeing support on Moon flux, with green swan ahead. On day trade this is warning to either cover of press stop. I'm tired today so my choice is to cover.
6/12/2020 11:53:46 AM MT Al****:: longer term, if you set up an hourly chart like the one used for the Chaos Clinic you can see that that rainbow of EXMAs turned down below the 1.5 day EXMA
6/12/2020 11:50:36 AM MT Al****:: one should only carry through a winning trades, so stops should be better than break even - a good stop guideline is a 55 minute EXMA if trade is below the 20 minute
6/12/2020 11:48:08 AM MT Al****:: now at the third MoonTide on has to decide to cover or carry through - the Rainbow of EXMAs help-today they say hold
6/12/2020 11:38:05 AM MT Al****:: longer term I like to trade Exchange Traded funds - SH short S&P and GLD gold funds using 8 hour bars and rainbows of EXMAs are good tools. Today SH looks like it is turning up
6/12/2020 11:33:43 AM MT Al****:: there are may interesting charts on this site, including the ones on the Secret page
6/12/2020 11:28:43 AM MT Al****:: the Chaos Clinic chart showed second trade as a sell-now testing low
6/12/2020 10:14:54 AM MT pvl:: yes , I see
6/12/2020 10:03:50 AM MT Al****:: the Chaos Clinic chart bars are colored by the 15/20 EXMA. It is an 8 hour "spliced chart." it shows the early down move into about 11:00
as per the tendency JBS reported on.
6/12/2020 9:06:55 AM MT pvl:: I mean today too?
6/12/2020 9:05:13 AM MT pvl:: Is market go down too??
6/12/2020 9:02:52 AM MT jbs****:: Looks like price will close the gap.
6/12/2020 8:59:29 AM MT jbs****:: 61.8% Fib retrace hit which could provide support.
6/12/2020 8:57:41 AM MT jbs****:: Price hit 50% Fib retrace of the after hours gap up. Likely to go to 61.8% retrace.
6/12/2020 8:10:25 AM MT pvl:: Thnx AI & JB
6/12/2020 7:53:57 AM MT Al****:: great work JBS. Thanks for sharing
6/12/2020 7:52:33 AM MT Al****:: pvl: set up your own chart on your own trading system like the third chart on the SPKISS page. Don't be anxious to make a trade. Yesterday will not repeat today. Be patient. Paper trade a week to practice the rules. Do not expect me to announce the trades.
6/12/2020 7:49:57 AM MT jbs****:: Regarding the tendency, "Gap up, buy low at 11", I looked at 10 years of ES price gaps from 1700 to 915. There were 1,362 gaps up and 1,124 gaps down. Of the 1,362 gaps up, buy at 11 and covering at 3 would have resulted in 58% winning trades. For the year 2020 (thru May 21st), there were 52 gaps up and buying at 11 and covering at 3 would have resulted in 62% winning trades. Note that covering at 3 pm was arbitrary just for this analysis. This does not mean that you should buy at 11am. Just wanted to share my research.
6/12/2020 7:47:47 AM MT Al****::
Welcome to the Chaos Clinic. This site has a lot of charts,
so you may find it useful to have several of them available within your
browser. If you have a tabbed browser, you can open separate charts
in separate tabs by right clicking on any link, and selecting "open in new tab"
from the menu. The main list of site pages is at
http://daytradingforecasts.com/chartlistsec.asp
Recommended pages to watch are SPKISS, Chaos Clinic, SPKISS, MTRainbow, and Chat.
For astro stuff, add SPSunMoon, Wheel, and Chaos Clinic.
Comments appear in the chat room,
Comments in the chat room are announced by a
"duck call" noise. This noise also occurs when the software detects a
resonant hex pattern on the Wheel page. Trading tutorials
are on the right side of the ListOfCharts page. One should
read Trading the MoonTide Tutorial and Keep it Simple as a minimum.
6/12/2020 7:22:05 AM MT pvl:: Good Morning ...I joined yesterday new to moontide base trading
6/12/2020 6:23:11 AM MT Al****:: GM all- good luck today
Chaos Clinic posted on AUX page
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