Chaos Clinic Recap

Here are Al's comments

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Powell and Trump Dump The Market Again
Chaos Clinic for 8/2/2019
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It has been hard to miss the market news this week. Wednesday the news was that the Dow
dropped 330 points after the Fed cut interest rates. Thursday the news was that the Dow
dropped 281 points after Trump tweeted that the US was adding more tariffs on Chinese goods.

Sound familiar? It is. My 5/10/2019 Chaos Clinic reported the last time this Dynamic Duo dumped the market.
History repeats.

But the market rally was in trouble before the Dynamic Duo even got on stage. In my
7/19/2019 Chaos Clinic I pointed out that the 3025 price level was a key resistance level.
That Friday, prices sold off sharply below that level. But the next week they climbed back
above 3025. I was particularly interested in how the two day FOMC meeting would
work out. The night of the 30th I was not sure what was going on. I was holding a small
short position, which had gone against me by a few points. But the market felt sick.
I decided worrying would not help, so I just went to bed.

My subconscious woke me up early. I got up, studied my charts, then posted the top chart shown above
on http://daytradingforecasts.com. Subscribers to my Tomorrow's Market Hotline Email
who had logged in saw it.

It was clear that the 3025 level was strong resistance. The market had made three drives just
above it, each time pulling back. On the 30th the S&P futures made a lower low.
On the morning of the 31st, it looked to be making a lower high.The three day EXMA had turned
down The sharp drop on the 30th had penetrated the three day EXMA vertically, suggesting
a possible 3 day down move . Prices were forming a sideways converging triangle, which would
end about midday. I could see a possible Andrews Pitchfork, or move 1 and 2 of a down Chaos Clamshell.

Chaos followed. Even before the FOMC announcement, prices headed lower. By the end of the day,
the Dow was down 333 points. From there, prices behaved much as they did in May. This is shown
on the second chart above.

In May, after the FOMC report, the market rebounded - until Trump surprised everyone with a tweet
threatening to impose tariffs on China. On August 1st, the same thing happened. Trump again tweeted
that he would impose higher tariffs on China. It was such a clear repeat one could wonder it the
Dynamic Duo had planned it.

If you look closely, this time the Powell-Trump swings are larger. That is due in part to some really
bad timing. Trump's tweet came just as the NYSE rotated to align with Mars (war) and Moon (lunacy.)

On the second chart is a rainbow of EXMAs, from 1.5 through 24 days. As in May, all of them have turned
down. The vertical drop down through the 24 day EXMA suggests a drop lasting 3 or 4 weeks.

So where from here? If the move down here is like the last Powell-Trump Dump, it should drop
to about 2810 near the end of August. Meanwhile, the short S&P Exchange Traded Fund, SH
has started up, and the gold ETF continues up. I continue to see money flowing into gold.

For more on my work, see Moneytide.com

Besides the comments made by Al, the chat room has live
comments from other traders who sometimes share their views,
trades and tips. Below are the chat room comments from this clinic

8/2/2019 1:18:47 PM MT Al****:: OK stopped for 1; I'm done; thanks for coming; See you next week; take some courses
8/2/2019 1:09:42 PM MT Al****:: raised stop to lock 1 point
8/2/2019 1:04:27 PM MT Al****:: on SPSunMoon chart you can see that last dip was a Mercury timeline ; earlier Mercury timeline was also a dip, so likely up from here
8/2/2019 1:01:52 PM MT Al****:: safe by 3 ticks
8/2/2019 12:47:02 PM MT Al****:: stop now to 2922.25, lock 2 ticks
8/2/2019 12:37:54 PM MT Al****:: so far so good, stop to 2920
8/2/2019 12:27:33 PM MT Al****:: note on the 3rd chart of the SPKISS page that the bars have turned white (long) as the 20 minute EXMA crossed the 110
8/2/2019 12:23:01 PM MT Al****:: my long here is not really a hotline trade, since the trade window has passed. Rather it is base on my reading or the flux lines, my Chaos Trading Made Easy chart, and experience.
8/2/2019 12:14:57 PM MT Al****:: yesterday I noticed the Moon flux -T090 stopped the rally. So I sold the R1 price at 3010.5, hoping to get a few points. Then the Exchange rotated under the Moon and Mars, Trump tweeted, and my trade was suddenly up 20 points, so I held overnight. Today it moved more, but I covered on the stall for 81 points because that is huge, and I'm going to be gone Monday and Tuesday.
8/2/2019 12:09:07 PM MT Al****:: during this dull period I covered a swing short trade from yesterday, then bought as a day trade long from 2921.75
8/2/2019 12:01:27 PM MT Al****:: and the Exchange passes the Moon
8/2/2019 12:00:21 PM MT Al****:: about then the green +Tide turns up
8/2/2019 11:56:35 AM MT Al****:: under these conditions, holding up past 2:30 Eastern usually leads to a short covering rally
8/2/2019 11:43:50 AM MT Al****:: on the Secret->esNat72 chart the range is 4 yellow vibration levels
8/2/2019 11:19:23 AM MT Al****:: prices are down about 100 points from yesterday; potential sellers need to ask "How much is left before a rebound?"
8/2/2019 11:03:24 AM MT Al****:: we are now at the first line, causing this dip. I'm watching to see if it is a higher low.
8/2/2019 11:02:00 AM MT Al****:: on the Secret->esNat72 chart there are 3 vertical lines; I call these days "Confusion Days." I usually fine it best to wait until after the third line to trade.
8/2/2019 10:53:04 AM MT Al****:: often on Friday all the action is in the morning. Those who caught the drop will just cover. Those who want to sell will wait until next week for a rebound. And some will take off early to go camping, which is what I'm going to do.
8/2/2019 10:47:49 AM MT Al****:: look at the SPSunMoon chart; bottomed on Venus +V270 flux. Also a rising green swan caught the low. So I do not see lower prices today.
8/2/2019 10:46:58 AM MT RR:: Thanks Dr. Al. Very helpful guidance.
8/2/2019 10:41:50 AM MT Al****:: the third chart on the SPKISS page has white bars following a 10/110 buy crossing. I make the rest of the day to be flat to up.
8/2/2019 10:38:06 AM MT srt:: Thanks Al
8/2/2019 10:34:10 AM MT RR:: Sorry, 20 points
8/2/2019 10:33:39 AM MT RR:: We already got 0 points rally. I wounder this is a time to go short, may be for rest of the day?
8/2/2019 10:30:52 AM MT Al****:: what I see on a 6 month 8 hour bar chart is sharp drop into a test of the down channel bottom, with a bounce. Possible spike low. EXMAs 9,18, 36 showing possible upturn but needs follow through

8/2/2019 10:15:28 AM MT srt:: Yes Al can you give a comment of euro rally as last possible buy setup didn’t work are we still on track.
8/2/2019 10:13:56 AM MT Al****:: I'm back, and also confused SRT. Did you have a question?
8/2/2019 9:54:28 AM MT srt:: Hi Al That 9/2/2018 9:33:15 is for euro rallies answer I am confused my question is not there I posted
8/2/2019 9:37:02 AM MT Al****:: I need to run an errand . Back in about 90 minutes.
8/2/2019 9:33:15 AM MT Al****:: I'm sure there will be rallies as we go lower, but the trend is down.
8/2/2019 9:28:04 AM MT mj:: Hello Al and everyone, I have a reversal cycle come in on the 3rd August which is Saturday. Anything going on late today Al to drive the market up?
8/2/2019 9:27:19 AM MT Al****:: a reasonable sell price on the first trade was about 2942. One could take about and 18 point gain here as approach the next Tide time. 18 points is twice the normal 9 point target.
8/2/2019 8:55:02 AM MT Al****:: one has to be aware of the mood of traders-the FOMC rate cut was widely expected to send stocks up. The reaction was the opposite. Trump's tweet was negative in context, and the reaction was negative. This morning's jobs report was average good, but the reaction was "So what?" Obviously the mood is dark.

The New Moon gets between the Sun and the Earth, trapping ions. This makes many people sad. Suicides peak on New Moon. Warriors attack their enemies during New Moon, because they are emotionally low.
8/2/2019 8:30:21 AM MT Al****:: you have to ask yourself "Who's going to buy on the last day of a week like this?"
S1 may be modest support
8/2/2019 8:17:24 AM MT RR:: Dr. Al, on the basis of Harmonic Grid, I was looking for sharp rebound testing overnight high of 2960. May be I have to wait!
8/2/2019 8:02:38 AM MT Al****:: third chart on SPKISS page shows 20/110 continuation sell at first trade time
8/2/2019 8:00:16 AM MT Al****:: thanks GON
8/2/2019 7:47:04 AM MT RR:: Gm all. looks like we are going to catch the green swan now! Any idea welcome.
8/2/2019 7:37:36 AM MT gon:: Good morning Al. Last week I was traveling but published your report on the next Monday. Today's I'm gonna publish now. Thanks!
8/2/2019 7:32:16 AM MT srj****:: GM Al, all
8/2/2019 7:22:44 AM MT Ted:: Good morning! Best of luck to you all.
8/2/2019 7:08:33 AM MT SKA:: GM
8/2/2019 6:37:43 AM MT Al****:: GM all-good luck today. Chaos Clinic is posted on the AUX page.

9:00 Eastern-System: No comments

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