Chaos Clinic Recap
Here are Al's comments
******************************************************************
Are Tech Stocks Done?
Chaos Clinic For 11/16/2018
******************************************************************
In January of this year, my daughter Amy told me she thought
Apple stock was way over valued. Her reasoning was that once
you sell an iPhone to everyone in the world, it is hard to keep
growing revenues. Amy is not a trader, but she is a genuine
rocket scientist with a PhD in Electrical Engineering. She
works for Los Alamos National Laboratory.
I agree with Amy, but for a different reason. This chart is
a weekly chart of AAPL, covering the last 16 years. It is
very clear that this was a growth stock.
I have studied growth stocks. Their curves follow certain
mathematics. Some follow linear growth, like a stock in a
trend channel. Some follow a geometric curve, like compound interest.
I have discovered another, more extreme mathematical curve that occurs in markets.
The particular one shown on the AAPL chart is a Fib Growth curve. It incorporates
the Fibonacci sequence, but not in an obvious manner. Of all the types of
growth curves, this one ends with a very fast blow off stage.
This curves is useful for finding the end of what traders call "power curves."
This particular one shows up when greed has become the only motive left for buying.
This was the curve I used to find the blow off top in the Dow Industrials in January
of 2018.
Growth markets may only fit this curve near the end of their growth cycle. When
they do, the end is near. In the case of APPL, the end looks to have already come.
These growth markets usually have 7 moves, as in a Chaos Clamshell. For more on
that, see Trading the Chaos Clamshell.
I have numbered the moves in APPL on the chart.
Note how the Fib Growth curve caught the move 7, starting in 2016. Also note where prices
broke above the line along the highs. That is the sign of mania buying. Finally,
note that in recent weeks, AAPL has dropped sharply.
How far could it drop? The lows at 2,4, and 6 were on the 200 week EXMA. That EXMA
is now at 147. If the price breaks hard, another downside target is the low of move
six, near 95.
Markets are provably chaotic. You can learn more about chaos in markets
by taking my four main courses at Moneytide.com
Besides the comments made by Al, the chat room has live
comments from other traders who sometimes share their views,
trades and tips. Below are the chat room comments from this clinic
11/16/2018 1:13:07 PM MT rvb****:: Thank you Al
11/16/2018 12:53:19 PM MT jvj****:: Thanks for the demo,Al
11/16/2018 12:49:00 PM MT DBJ:: Thank you for sharing your screen Al. Have a great weekend.
11/16/2018 12:38:16 PM MT Al****:: my Teamviewer session will shut down soon
Thanks for coming
-everybody have a great weekend
11/16/2018 11:42:45 AM MT Al****:: Red Swan/Black Swan crossing
11/16/2018 11:40:56 AM MT Al****:: it was operator error :)
11/16/2018 11:37:23 AM MT jvj****:: OK, it's there now! Thanks
11/16/2018 11:29:50 AM MT jvj****:: Good Day, All, The Team Viewer chart is working well, but I can't seem to find the FOP chart in the Certified Chaos Trader's room.
11/16/2018 11:28:58 AM MT Al****:: posted that chart in CCT Room
11/16/2018 11:20:14 AM MT Al****:: on my spliced two day charts that's 7 moves up
11/16/2018 9:57:02 AM MT Al****:: showing a work in progress on Teamviewer M51-537-226
11/16/2018 9:26:02 AM MT Al****:: I have placed a Fractal of Pi chart in the Certified Chaos Trader's Room. That room is open
to graduates of my 4 main courses. See http://moneytide.com -> Courses for details.
11/16/2018 9:23:08 AM MT srj****:: thanks AL.
11/16/2018 9:19:02 AM MT Al****:: send me an email and I'll check it out over the weekend
11/16/2018 9:13:32 AM MT srj****:: GM Dr. Al, all.
For some reason I have not been getting any of the weekly emails. I checked and turned on weekly emails in the moneytide page - but still no email. (checked my spam folder but nothing there either)
11/16/2018 9:11:24 AM MT DBJ:: OK thanks. That's good to know.
11/16/2018 9:09:45 AM MT Al****:: ditch RDP and use TeamViewer - thye never see you using it if you are using it on you8r LAN
11/16/2018 9:06:41 AM MT DBJ:: Haha! Nice one! I use Remote desktop a lot so I can control a couple of my computers from one keyboard, and I use it a lot. Sadly, Microsoft have removed RDP from the Home license as well!
11/16/2018 9:03:56 AM MT Al****:: the free license times out after two hours. I think if they see you doing that daily they will insist you pay, which is fair.
One of my uses is to remotely control the computer in my entertainment center from the computer by my armchair
11/16/2018 8:46:49 AM MT DBJ:: Precisely. I read somewhere that they may try to force you to upgrade to a paid license if you over-use the free license. I seem to remember that they monitor how many computers you connect to, and for how long you connect to the computers that you use. So I only connect for limited periods of time. Perhaps the restrictions aren't so tight as I imagine, but I'd rather use it in a limited capacity than lose the use that I have now.
11/16/2018 8:41:33 AM MT Al****:: Teamviewer is free for non-commercial use; I have one business license and several free ones
11/16/2018 8:29:04 AM MT DBJ:: Agreed. I guess they just want people to buy the license, but for home users, the license is pretty expensive. I may get it at some point, but for now I get by with the free one. It hadn't occurred to me that there was a separate App version to V14, but that must be the case from your experience.
11/16/2018 8:24:44 AM MT Al****:: I just get mine from Teamviwer-strange that there are differences
11/16/2018 8:22:31 AM MT DBJ:: Yep, that's the one.
11/16/2018 8:20:30 AM MT Al****:: is this an app from the Windows Store?
11/16/2018 8:17:45 AM MT DBJ:: That was the problem. The app didn't give you the option to change the advanced settings. This was confirmed on a usergroup.
11/16/2018 8:16:28 AM MT Al****:: also, check the settings
11/16/2018 8:14:47 AM MT DBJ:: Thank you. I will check it out in more detail then at the weekend.
11/16/2018 8:10:29 AM MT Al****:: usually Teamveiwer versions are not compatible -forced migration
should be OK if you install directly from Teamviewr
11/16/2018 8:06:51 AM MT DBJ:: Thank you for the advice about updating to TeamViewer 14 Al. Will version 13 still connect with your system? I ask because I just downgraded to V13 because the Windows 10 app for TeamViewer 14 doesn't accept incoming connections.
11/16/2018 6:38:48 AM MT Al****:: GM all-good luck today
Chaos Clinic writeup is on the AUX page
Teamviewer users should all update to the new version 14
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments
[ Live Clinics on Friday on DaytradingForecasts.com ]