We now have enough forward realtime testing of MoonTides to see if they are a help in trading. Since April 7, 1998 I have been using the MoonTide forecasts to specify the One-A-Day trades on my daytrading hotline. I made this change as a quality improvement move, and only after careful study. After all, my hotline was already doing pretty good.
When one tries a new methodology, one needs to verify it with at least 30 trades. We now have 35 MoonTide trades, so the statistics mean something. Here are the raw trade results, day by day.
04/07/98, 2.80
04/08/98, 2.20
04/09/98,-2.30
04/13/98, 6.00
04/14/98, 0.40
04/15/98, 0.70
04/16/98, 1.50
04/17/98,-1.50
04/20/98,-0.60
04/21/98,-0.30
04/22/98,-1.80
04/23/98, 1.70
04/24/98, 0.00
04/27/98, 6.20
04/28/98, 1.80
04/29/98, 0.10
04/30/98, 6.60
05/01/98,-1.00
05/04/98,-1.10
05/05/98, 1.50
05/06/98, 4.00
05/07/98,-2.40
05/08/98,-1.90
05/11/98,-0.50
05/12/98, 1.20
05/13/98, 0.70
05/14/98,-0.60
05/15/98,-2.70
05/18/98, 1.60
05/20/98, 2.00
05/21/98,-0.50
05/22/98, 4.00
05/26/98, 6.00
05/27/98, 0.60
05/28/98, 3.00
Here are the statistics: (no allowance for commission and slippage)
Number of trades: 35
Number of loses : 13
Number of wins : 22
S&P Points lost : 17.2
S&P Points won : 54.6
Dollars won to dollars lost : 3.17 to 1
My actual slippage and commission average .2 S&P points per trade.
Over 35 trades this amounts to an additonal 7 points lost.
This reduces the dollars won to lost to 2.26. As long as this
ratio is more than 1.0, you succeed.
This method made 30.4 points in two months after commissions. That's about $3750 per month trading just one contract. In 12 months, that is $45,000. If one assumes a starting equity of $20,000, that's more than 100% per year. Of course, results will vary from trader to trader, and over time with the same trader.
I have always felt that a trading method based on a physical calculation would work. The challenge has been to find one. It looks like MoonTides is it. It tells the clam digger when to go dig for clams. These tides are real, physical tides in the earth's electric field, and they do show up in the S&P. They don't get all the detail, but they do tell you when a good move might come.
This example shows that MoonTides are a great help in making money - or is that Moon-ey? But you are cautioned that futures trading is risky, and that past success is no guarantee of future success.
